Russia is going to invade Ukraine
- The goal of the invasion is vague
- Do they plan to annex the entire country?
- Do they plan to annex just the eastern half?
- Do they plan on going in and causing destruction to send a message and then leaving?
- There is intelligence suggesting they plan on taking Kyiv and overthrowing the government
- The meaning of this seems vague.
- Are they replacing the Ukrainian government with an ally and leaving?
- Is Russia becoming the new government?
- Russian presence in Belarus is worrisome
- This gives Russia the ability to attack from the North.
- Russia can attack on three axises now.
- North from Belarus
- East from Russia
- South from Crimea.
- It’s going to be hard enough to defend along one axis, let alone 3.
- Russia is deploying S-400 anti-air devices in Belarus and in Western Russia, these are the real deal.
- Could hurt Ukrainian air capabilities
- US support to Ukraine is about helping an ally, it’s also about calming the nerves of Poland and the Baltics. If Russia acts in a massive way, they could be spooked into attacking Russia preemptively.
- US surveillance is really about trying to prevent that.
- There are those asking - “If Russia was going to invade, why would they make it so obvious” - How do you sneak attack in 2022? There are space satellites that follow your military at all times.
- It’s also just not possible to sneak attack invade anymore, there is just so much hardware that you have to move.
What does this mean for everyone else?
- Germany is in a rough spot.
- They need gas.
- Their policies of non-intervention, of not giving arms in conflict zones is because of its history. I think it’s easy to see why Germany is a little weird about it.
- The US is showing its commitment to European Security.
- The UK is showing that it’s interested in Europe again, it’s showing its commitment as a security partner. Endless amounts of military equipment are being delivered to Ukraine.
Feb 16 update
- Ukraine cybersecrurity
- Russia positioning along the border but saying that they are still talking to the West while there also is “ah they are backing down?” as they pullback troops vibes but it doesn’t really seem like they are deescalating - but now saying there is genocide which gives them a reason to defend, not “invade” - surely they are not going to do a full blown invasion hehe
- Russia is increasing tropp numbers at ukranian borders
- India is asking citizens to leave - Listened to this Intelligence podcast yesterday and one of the guy’s was arguing “Israel supports Russia’s claims in Ukraine, they are to a certain extent a Russian ally and US intelligence persuaded them to evacuate.” And then the other person said “what about India tho” And they suggested that if India evacuates.. that perhaps that’s further confirmation of US intelligence