As always, these are clips from articles and papers, sources cited at the bottom. Synthesized thoughts.

the general vibe: Vladimir Putin will attack Ukraine in the east. Or from the south. Or with a feint from Transnistria in the west. Or from Belarus. He will announce peace and then attack. Or vice versa. So: war is coming. Or maybe not.

Journalists/researchers etc

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand

https://twitter.com/RALee85

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael

https://twitter.com/TommyLundn

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas

https://twitter.com/JakeCordell

(will update)

Cyber attack

Kyiv, Ukraine

• Cybersecurity is probably one of the most underinvested in
  • Ukrainian government websites hit by a major cyberattack this morning. Below is the screenshot from Foreign ministry website. It says in Ukrainian, Russian and Polish: 'Ukrainian, be afraid and prepare for the worst. All your personal data has been uploaded to the web’
• Russia has ran ~250k cyber attacks against Ukraine over the past year
• There are similarities with Notpetya, Russian malware that crippled hundreds of Ukrainian businesses and organizations in 2017. It then spread worldwide and became the costliest cyber-attack in history, doing $10bn in damage.

https://twitter.com/OlegNikolenko_/status/1481880668195983362?s=20